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China to Release 2019 PV Policy; Goal of 13th Five-Year Plan May Rise Substantially

The confirmed cumulative PV installation goal is 105GW for China’s “13th Five-Year Plan”, but by late-September this year, an installation of 165GW has already been achieved.

On the morning of November 2nd 2018, the National Energy Administration (NEA) held a seminar to discuss the goal adjustment of PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) installation in the “13th Five-Year Plan”. Many energy authorities have joined the meeting including heads of energy departments in between ten to twenty provinces, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute (EPPEI), China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, China PV Industry Association, power grid companies, and between ten to twenty PV firms.

According to the “13th Five-Year Plan” announced in December 2016, China aimed to achieve 105GW of PV and 5GW of CSP installation by late-2020. In fact, China’s PV installation has reached 165GW by September 2018; far exceeded the goal planned in the “13th Five-Year Plan”. Although the goal of PV installation in the “13th Five-Year Plan” is not to constrain the scale; it will not limit the growth of installed capacity, since the “13th Five-Year Plan” is halfway through, target adjustment is necessary.

On the meeting, representatives from the EPPEI presented reports related to the “13th Five-Year Plan”. Later, all other representatives from different institutions gave a speech.

According to the understanding of PV men, the NEA indicated that China will continue to support PV as one of the major clean energies in the nation. They will take it slowly to grid-parity before 2022. The NEA will guarantee a certain amount of subsidies every year and continue to lower subsidies further before all subsidies are removed. It’s rumored that in the next one month or so, the NEA will focus on accelerating the launch of 2019 PV policies in order to guarantee stable development in the PV market.

In addition, based on the suggestions of the participants at the seminar, the relevant supervisors also approved the idea of separating the management of residential and industrial/commercial distributed generation systems, which will further guide and support the orderly development of residential distributed generation.。

According to China’s current manufacturing scale and the development goals of some power investment companies, China needs 40GW of new installations every year to maintain the orderly development of the PV industry and further reduce costs through economies of scale.

To sum up the discussion of leaders and participants at the meeting in one sentence – “the goal of 210GW is also a bit low.” The PV installation target of China’s “13th Five-Year Plan” is likely to scale up to over 250GW or even 270GW. In the future, the NDRC and EPPEI will conduct detailed investigations in combine with the actual development to make corresponding adjustments.

The NEA also made an appeal at the meeting, hoping that PV industry associations, institutions, companies, and governments can support each other and together maintain a healthy development of clean energies.

Meeting announcement is as follow:

China 135 Policy Note

China 135 Policy Note

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