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Stable demand in January, leading to fixed prices till Lunar New Year

Poly Price

Polysilicon prices slightly declined in China this week. The average trading price of polysilicon declined RMB 2/kg for both multi and mono wafer use. Although demand this week remained unchanged from December 2018, the overall prices slightly dropped owing to the higher supplies.

Since manufacturers are still preparing to stock for the Lunar New Year in late-January, it’s projected that price of multi wafer use polysilicon will decline RMB 1/kg further in January, while that of mono wafer use stays flat basically. This price of mono wafer use polysilicon wll remain stable till after the Lunar New Year. For the overseas, buyers and sellers haven’t come to an agreement yet, however, the trading volume has slightly rose, with prices basically remaining at the same level from last month.

Wafer Price

This week, wafer prices remained stable in China. Because the overseas demand is squeezed by the Chinese orders, the overseas market experienced slightly tight supply. In addition, due to currency factor, wafer prices have reflected an uptrend. Although wafer prices remained at US$ 0.265-0.27/piece, some of the trading prices have slightly gone up.

Top-tier Chinese manufacturers are the major suppliers for the overseas multi wafers demand. Since top-tier Chinese makers are full order statuses in January, they have more dominance over the price. In the aspect of Chinese prices, most of the orders have been signed in early-January; and thus it’s less possible for prices to increase although some makers had the thought to raise the price. On the other hand, the mono wafer market saw a balanced supply and demand relationship, with prices remaining unchanged.

Cell Price

Owing to the stock preparation before the Lunar New Year, not just the mono PERC cell market will continue to witness slightly tight supply in January; the multi cell market will also see a balanced supply and demand relationship with a utilization rate lower than mono cell. Cell prices are unlikely to change till the Lunar New Year. Mono cell with an efficiency of over 21.5% will remain flat at RMB 1.28-1.31/W in China and US$ 0.162-0.165/W in the overseas. Meanwhile, multi cell is priced at RMB 0.86-0.9/W and US$ 0.109-0.115/W.

However, without any stock preparation after the Lunar New Year, the Chinese demand will begin to drop, leading to weak overall demand. In addition, as manufacturers release more mono PERC capacities, both mono PERC and multi cell prices will decline.

Module Price

Order visibility is better for mono PERC modules in Q1. Top-tier vertically-integrated manufacturers, particularly, are in full order status with order prices slightly rising in both China and the overseas. But overall, 310W PERC module is still priced at RMB 2.2-2.3/W and US$ 0.28-0.30/W.

For multi modules, top-tier vertically-integrated manufacturers can come up with higher quote in prices because of the better order visibility in Q1 caused by the earlier deployment in the overseas markets. But the order visibility is lower for second-tier manufacturers, leading to lower quote in prices this week.

PV Glass Price

Since the overall PV demand is likely to drop after the Lunar New Year and China’s future demand trend remains unclear, the market is in wait-and-see mode. PV glass prices may have reached a high point, with price expecting to stay flat at RMB 23-24 per square meter before the Lunar New Year.

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