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Demand getting weaker over short term while upstream prices going downhill

Poly Price

This week saw remarkable decline in polysilicon prices, with China’s polysilicon for multi-Si wafer prices dropping to RMB 65/kg. Second-tier companies’ quotes are even lower. Although polysilicon for multi-Si wafer prices have dropped, prices for those can be used for mono-Si wafer remain high, the market is still witnessing a downward trend in prices. Meanwhile, only some contract deals for April’s mono-Si wafer use have been signed so far, thus prices have stayed constant like last week. However, it’s almost certain that after this week, prices will decline in April and this downward trend will continue later on.

For overseas market, as production of multi-Si wafer is decreasing, polysilicon prices and demand for multi-Si wafer use are also going downhill. Though mono-Si prices have remained unchanged, transactions also decreased due to demand downward trend. Looking forward, prices may fall again in April and May amid price slump. For now, polysilicon prices also haven’t fallen to the low point. 

Wafer Price

Overseas and Chinese prices for multi-Si wafer have dropped this week, with China’s market price falling to RMB 2.06/piece. Judging from the current market situation, RMB 2.05/piece might be the standard price for new orders. Regarding overseas market, prices have declined slightly to USD 0.278/piece; while new orders may be placed mainly with USD 0.275/piece. Owing to weakening demands, prices for multi-Si wafer are expected to drop next week.

Prices for mono-Si wafer, on the other hand, have remained stable in China and overseas. Zhonghuan Solar and Longi are expected to release prices for April, but prices are more likely to stay flat under current market situation. In a short term, prices for mono- and multi-Si wafer in April and May are expected to decrease as a result of price slump in polysilicon.

Cell Price

This week, buyers will start placing orders for next month but so far not much transactions are made; therefore, prices will maintain constant temporarily. As India’s demand are slowing down, especially for multi-Si cell, it is certain that prices will go downhill. Multi-Si cell, on the other hand, has limited profitability, thus the range of price decrease will depend on wafer prices.

Despite mono PERC cell’s order visibility is higher than that of multi-Si, markets are witnessing demand slowing. Currently, situation between top-tier and second-tier cell manufacturers is distinct, thus there will be bigger gap in market prices.

Prices this week remain the same as last week. Prices for PERC cells with at least 21.5% efficiency stay at RMB 1.22-1.26/W; USD 0.16-0.165/W for overseas. As top-tier cell makers’ inventories of PERC cell are sufficient, prices are unlikely to drop next week amid buyer-seller standoff.

Module Price

Although the low season is soon approaching, top-tier companies’ orders of PERC module still maintain at the maximum so far. Therefore, top-tier module makers’ overseas PERC prices stay above USD 0.27/W. Meanwhile, order visibility of second-tier companies is lower than that of top-tier companies, making low prices decrease marginally. Overall, prices of second-tier companies are around USD 0.26-0,27/W, which are slightly lower than that of top-tier companies.

So far, demand in China has been weak and has to depend on overseas orders. Also, this year’s overseas demands for conventional multi-Si have become weaker than before, even top-tier companies’ orders of conventional multi-Si have decreased, leading to downward trend in multi-Si module prices in Chinese and overseas markets.  

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