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Under impact of China’s VAT cut and approaching of low season, mid-to-upstream supply chain witness price slump

*The conventional mono-Si market saw a significant decline in demand this year compared to last year. Therefore, PV InfoLink will not list spot prices of conventional mono-Si cell and module starting this week.

Poly Price

This week’s polysilicon prices declined further following the continuous increase in supplies. Meanwhile, multi-Si wafer demand keeps falling, and therefore polysilicon for multi-Si wafers are facing serious oversupply, leading to continous drop in prices. Though there's rumours about low-priced polysilicon, the inexpensive ones are in fact, of traders’ clearance deals and polysilicon from different sources; thus, there aren't much low-priced polysilicon in the market, allowing average selling price to remain at above RMB 60/kg. So far, only a small amount of transactions for April has been made since downstream sectors are waiting to see whether prices will decline further or not. 

Some market prices of polysilicon for mono-Si wafers reflected the impact of VAT cut, but most transactions will not be finalized until the end of this week as order for April remains unclear for many top-tier polysilicon makers and mono-Si wafer companies. Next week, Chinese polysilicon prices are expected to drop RMB 1-2/kg. Regarding overseas market, polysilicon prices for mono-Si wafers remain stable. So far, only a few transactions have been made for both mono- and multi-Si wafers.

Wafer Price

Due to weak demand and lower polysilicon prices, multi-Si wafer prices in China have fallen to RMB 2/piece or lower this week. Given that prices will continue to go down following the decreased polysilicon prices, some multi-Si wafer manufacturers are likely to cut production in April. Overseas prices, on the other hand, stayed flat at US$ 0.275/piece, which is slighter better than Chinese quote after converting into RMB. However, prices may drop to a level similar to Chinese quote owing to a continuous decline in overseas multi-Si wafer demand. 

Regarding overseas mono-Si wafer, after Longi’s price was revised upward, price ranges have narrowed with market price reaching US$ 0.423-0.43/piece. Since demand for the mono-Si wafer has remained stable this week, any change in price quotes is mainly affected by China's VAT cut. Longi currently kept price at the pre-tax level, while Zhonghuan hasn’t revealed prices yet. With no additional mono-Si wafer capacity as well as increasing demand in April, whether Zhonghuan will adjust prices remains to be seen.

Cell Price

VAT reduction and weakened demand have led to a decrease in cell prices this week. Despite the high order visibility, total demand for mono-Si PERC cells has declined, with prices dropping to RMB 1.2-1.22/W. As wafer prices are not confirmed yet, buyers and sellers are still negotiating cell orders. The cell market is also likely to witness a slight decline in prices. In addition, due to VAT cut in China, prices dropped marginally in the overseas market, with market price hitting US$ 0.16/W. 

Multi-Si cell price currently stood at RMB 0.87/W and is expected to decline further following the weak multi-Si product demand. 

Module Price

Weaker multi-Si product demand has led to a decline in multi-Si module prices and utilization rates. Even top-tier manufacturers cannot retain maximum order quantity. Although the mono-Si PERC module market saw strong demand from the overseas, the amount of orders received by second-tier is far less than top-tier manufacturers. Furthermore, the large price gap between mono-Si PERC and multi-Si modules resulted in a slight decline in mono-Si PERC module prices.

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