Trade War

Home News & Analysis Trade War

Section 201 Quota, tariff or import license fee allow continuous shipment to US

The US International Trade Commission (USITC) had a meeting on October 31st (US time zone). Since the commissioners of ITC proposed different suggestions for the remedy measures, the impact from the “Section 201” case is not completely clear yet. But it seems that the ITC prefers the combination of import quota and tariff/import license fees. Manufacturers can start to see what can be the ways of responding.

The overall situation won’t be clearer until the ITC officially comes up with suggestions and presents the suggestions to President Trump on November 13th. By then, the White House will have sixty days to decide whether they will take ITC’s proposal or make a different decision.

The opinions suggested by the four commissioners are as below:

Among the four commissioners, Broadbent’s proposal of an import quota of 8.9GW and an import license fee of only US$ 0.01/W has the least impact on the industry. With the 8.9GW import Quota plus the additional capacities around 6GW that were not affected by the “Section 201” case, the US demand can almost stay flat and won’t decline if the import license fee can be processed successfully.

But the result may end up with the import quota and tariff solution proposed by the other three members. Different tax rates will be imposed on cell and module imports. The tax rate will decline year by year in the next four years.

PV InfoLink Point of View

PV InfoLink believes that if shipping Chinese modules to the US, the cost reached US$ 0.28-0.30/W for 60pcs 270W and 72pcs 320-325W conventional multi-Si modules that use diamond wire (DW) wafers with the additive or wet etching methods. If adding the total tax rate of 60% from the “Section 201” case and the anti-dumping and countervailing duty rate, the minimum cost for modules to ship to the US reached US$ 0.45-0.48/W, US$ 5 cents higher than the current spot price of US$ 0.41-0.43/W in the US.

The original cost was US$ 0.34-0.35/W for mono-Si PERC modules. After taking the tax rate into account, it will increase to US$ 0.55/W, which is still in the acceptable range of US$ 0.5-0.6/W. Adding an ITC tax rate of 30% onto the N-type module cost of US$ 0.5-0.8/W is only equal or slightly higher than the current prices in the US regions. Therefore, N-type market share will shrink significantly. PERC will be the option with better profits among all other products. The ratio of PERC product shipping to the US will increase.

ITC’s decision will have limited effect on the capacities in Southeast Asia because there’s no need to count the anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

However, if calculating from a tax rate of 30% for cells, shipping cells directly to the US or having them assembled in countries that don’t require ITC tax rate is also one of the options to ship to the US. The multi-Si cell cost will only reach US$ 0.17/W next year, but after taking 30% tax rate into account, the cost will be US$ 0.22/W. After the multi-Si cell being assembled into a module in Singapore or other waiver countries, it will cost only US$ 0.42/W. Consequently, module capacity expansion in waiver countries like Singapore is another option too.

To conclude all of the above, most manufacturers will not choose to build factories in the US. Therefore, the largest variable lies in the quota allocation. It appears that although members of ITC have different quota methods, there will be at least 6-8GW of installation in the US (include capacities in countries that do not require a tax rate and import quota).

ITC final decision’s impact on the market

1.Manufacturers will witness lower tax rates and costs year by year. It’s not necessary for them to build factories in the US. However, waiver countries can still expand module capacities at the existing factories.

2.Capacities in Southeast Asia still have the advantages since they are not imposed the anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

3.In the form of tax rate, the lower the cost, the more room to ship to the US. This will accelerate manufacturers’ implementation of DW multi-Si wafers with additive or wet etching black silicon methods. For mono-Si products, it will be more urgent to lower wafer prices. The market share of N-type high-efficiency products with higher costs will be largely replaced by low-cost products.

4.President Trump will visit China in November right before ITC report is presented to him. All the topics and negotiation discussed with China may affect the final decision of the “Section 201” case.

Previous Go Back Next

欢迎您光临PV InfoLink网站(,以下简称“本网站”),请您详阅下方的本网站的使用条款、以保障双方权益,若使用本网站则表明您已知悉并完全接受这些条款。

§ 1 免责声明

本网站合法获取信息,并尽可能以可靠、准确、完整的信息为基础,但不保证本网站信息的绝对准确性和绝对完整性,亦不对任何人的市场操作、投资建议负任何责任。PV InfoLink保留随时补充、修订或更改有关信息的权利,但并不保证随时发布。

 § 2 版权声明

本网站中的商标、名称、版面设计、自有文章、图片、图表等内容之版权归PV InfoLink所有。对于内容中所含的版权和其他所有权声明,使用者应予以尊重并在其转载、副本中予以保留。如果网站内容无权利声明,并不代表本网站对其不享有权利,也不意味着本网站不主张权利,使用者应根据诚信原则尊重该内容的合法权益并进行合法使用。

§ 3 转载及链接

本网站出于促进业界同仁思想交流和研究探讨之目的,可能包含转载文章或连接到第三方网页上的链接。转载文章所阐述的观点只代表该作者自身观点,本网站转载并不代表赞成或反对其观点。另外,本网站对外部链接并不负审查义务,不担保其准确性及完整性。在收集原始素材时,PV InfoLink尽可能注明文章的作者和来源,如文章作者或版权所有者对此存有异议,并不希望本网站引用、转载,请联系我们,本网站将立即予以删除。

§ 4 拒绝提供担保




本使用条款之订立、修改、更新及最终解释权均属PV InfoLink所有。若您对于本使用条款或本网站有任何问题或建议,欢迎来信

Welcome to PV InfoLink website (, hereinafter referred to as “this website”). Please read this terms of use agreement carefully to protect the interests of both parties. By accessing this website, you know and fully agree with these terms.

§1 Disclaimer

Information on this website is legally obtained and is based on reliable, accurate, and complete information. But absolute accuracy and completeness is not guaranteed. We assume no responsibility for anyone’s market operation or investment advice. PV InfoLink reserves the right to add, revise, or alter website information anytime, but information will not be guaranteed to be published all the time. 

§2 Copyright statement

The copyright of trademark, name, website layout, articles, photos, charts, etc. on this website are the properties of PV InfoLink. For the copyright and other proprietary statement contained in the content, users should show the respect and cite sources when sharing the article. If the website has no copyright statement, it does not mean that its contents are not protected. Users should respect the legitimate rights for use based on the principle of integrity.

§3 Share and link

This website may share articles or put subcontractor’s link on this website for the purpose of facilitating peer exchange and research. The point of view for the shared article is author’s own point of view. This website does not represent in favor or against the author’s point of view. In addition, this website does not have an obligation to review external links and does not guarantee its accuracy and completeness. For the collection of original sources, we will try to cite the author and source as much as possible. If the author or copyright owner has any opinions and do not want this website to refer or share their content, please contact us. The article will be removed immediately. 

§4 Refuse to provide warranty

This website does not provide any express or implied warranties, including but not limited to commercial suitability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement of the rights of others.

This website is for reference only. Users should determine the immediacy and applicability of such information themselves and have to be responsible for any transaction or investment decisions made.

If users conduct trade transactions with other manufacturers through this website, only the user and the manufacturer have a contractual relationship. This website is not involved in it. If the product or service has any flaws or disputes, users will have to contact the contractor. This website will assume no responsibility for such matters.

The making, modification, renewal, and final interpretation of this Terms of Use are the properties of PV InfoLink. If you have any questions or suggestions regarding this Terms of Use or this website, please contact us at


PV InfoLink的现货价格主要来自平时与业界的面谈、
但每周根据市场分为略有微调,且加上PV InfoLink专业分析群的市场预测。

PV InfoLink gathers price information from face-to-face/phone interviews and other ways of communication with more than 100 PV companies. We get our average price from the most common transactional data in the market (not weighted average), but prices are slightly adjusted every week according to market conditions. With PV InfoLink’s professional market forecast, we seek the fullness and completeness of the information, but this information is just for reference. We assume no responsibility for anyone’s market operation or investment advice.