As China’s installation boom before June 30th approaches, the domestic market saw new high in the newly-installed capacity in 1H17. PV Men learned that the new installation has reached 11GW from January to May, with the monthly installation reaching over 2GW. PV Men heard from numerous market intelligence companies that the new installation may reach 10-12GW in June. Therefore, the total newly-installed capacity is expected to surpass 22GW in 1H17.
The major grid-connected project in January 2017 was the installation that was completed in the last quarter of 2015. As a result, the grid-connected installation has reached 4.15GW, which is in line with past years of experiences. China went through stable growth in February, March, and April. The installation rise in May has indicated the surge of installation in June – you can refer to May and June last year. Installation has increased from 2GW in May to 11GW in June last year.
When asking many analysts and senior managers about the new grid-connected installation in June, most of them said 10-12GW. One of the analysts indicated that installation in June may equal to the total of January-May. Meanwhile, PV Men asked many top-tier PV power plant investors about the installation in June. Six of them have the plan to connect 500-100MW to the gird in June. On the other hand, one of them has grid-connection target of more than 1GW. According to the statistics, the grid-connected installation will reach 5.5GW in June for these top ten companies.
Judging from module supply, the total capacity may surpass 50GW for top 20 module makers in China. Calculated from a monthly capacity of 5GW, the supply from May and June will be able to support the installation boom for the last month. From module supply’s perspective in June, the total grid-connected installation may reach 10GW – but module installation may only be 80% of the grid-connected installation. According to PV Men’s understanding, some power plants will only install part of modules.
Judging from different types of installations, the proportion of distributed generation (DG) has increased in April and May, representing 44.7% and 40.4%, respectively. The newly-installed capacity has reached 4.08GW in the first five months of this year for DG systems. Since ground-mounted DG is included in the DG project statistics, consequently, the scale of roof-top DG still needs to be confirmed more accurately.
China’s cumulative installation has reached 77.42GW by the end of 2016. If 22GW has been added in 1H17, the cumulative installation may surpass 90GW. Although PV installation target is set to reach 105GW in China’s 13th Five-Year Plan, this goal may be achieved in late-2017. When the 13th Five-Year Plan comes to an end, the cumulative installation will exceed 150GW. With such high developmental scale, it will bring more pressures to the government, in which, subsidy is particularly a major contradiction among all. Therefore, the Ministry of Finance, National Development and Reform Commission, and National Energy Administration will make policy adjustment according to the actual situation to solve the negative impact brought by the subsidy delay.
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